欧洲央行-信贷冲击对住房和租赁市场的总体和分布影响（英）-2024-55页

WorkingPaperSeriesTheaggregateanddistributionalimplicationsofcreditshocksonhousingandrentalmarketsJuanCastellanos,AndrewHannon,GonzaloPaz-PardoDisclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.No2977Abstract:Webuildamodeloftheaggregatehousingandrentalmarketsinwhichhousepricesandrentsaredeterminedendogenously.Householdscanchoosetheirhousingtenurestatus(renters,homeowners,orlandlords)andthesizeoftheirhomesdependingontheirage,incomeandwealth.Weuseourmodeltostudytheimpactofchangesincreditconditionsonhouseprices,rentsandhouseholdwelfare.Weanalysetheintroductionofpoliciesthatlimitedloan-to-value(LTV)andloan-to-income(LTI)ratiosofnewlyoriginatedmortgagesinIrelandin2015andfindthat,consistentwithempiricalevidence,theymitigatehousepricegrowthbutincreaserents.Homeownershipratesdrop,andyoungandmiddle-incomehouseholdsarenegativelyaffectedbythereform.Anunexpectedpermanentriseinrealinterestrateshassimilareffects–bymakingmortgagesmoreexpensiveandalternativeinvestmentsmoreattractiveforlandlords,itincreasesrentsrelativetohouseprices.Keywords:HousePrices,RentalPrices,Homeownership,Life-cycle,CreditConditions,Macro-prudentialPolicyJELclassification:D15,E21,E30,E51,G51ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo29771Non-technicalsumm...