Morgan Stanley-China Financials July credit data continue to show impact o...-109836028(1)

MUpdateChinaFinancials|AsiaPacificJulycreditdatacontinuetoshowimpactofreducedwindowguidanceMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+RichardXu,CFAEquityAnalystRichard.Xu@morganstanley.com+8522848-6729BerylYangResearchAssociateBeryl.Yang@morganstanley.com+8523963-2224ChiyaoHuangEquityAnalystChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com+8523963-4624Relatedreports:ChinaFinancials:AssessingtheImpactoftheNewMonetaryFramework(26Jul2024)ChinaFinancials:AnotherfirmPBOCactiontosupportratesandmoveawayfromquantitativetargets(8Jul2024)ChinaFinancials:Furthershiftfromquantitytorateorientedmonetarypolicyshouldbenefitbanks(20Jun2024)ChinaFinancials:MayTSFreflectscontinuedrationalizationofloangrowth(14Jun2024)JulyTSFgrowthrecoveredslightlyto8.2%,withmoresupportfromgovernmentbonds.Householdloansandshort-termcorporateloansremainedweakamidreducedwindowguidanceonSMEandindustrialloangrowth.M1andcorporatedepositsfellfurther,by6.6%and3.3%YoY,respectively,inJuly.Julycreditnumberssupportedmainlybygovernmentbondissuanceamidaseasonallylowmonth:HeadlineTSFgrowthrecoveredslightlyto8.2%inJulyvs.8.1%inJunefromalowbase-newTSFwasRmb771bn,upRMB234bnYoYbutdownRmb2.5tnQoQ.Governmentbondissuanceactedasthemainsupport,addingRmb691bn,upRmb280bnYoY,whichinourviewcouldcontinuetosupportTSFgrowthintherestof2024.Notably,YTDgovernmentbondissuance,atRmb4tn,alreadyexceededtheamountinthes...