Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary August 16-109894230(1)

MUpdateGlobalMacroCommentary|NorthAmericaAugust16MorganStanley&Co.LLCAlexandraMaierStrategistAlexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com+1212761-0428MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+DominicJKrummenacherStrategistDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com+44207425-9781MorganStanley&Co.LLCLenoyDujonUS/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+HirokiYagiResearchAssociateHiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5412MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GekTengKhooStrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303StrongUSdatacapsUSTrally;solidUKretailsalessendsgiltshigher;RBNZ'sSilksayscontractionmaybeneededtolowerinflation;USD/THBfallsamidpoliticaluncertainty;Hungaryratesunderperform;goldpricestop$2,500/oz;DXYat102.40(-0.6%);US10yat3.883%(-3.1bp).•USTspartiallyunwindthepostUSRetailSalessell-off,butstrongdatasuchasanupsidesurpriseinUniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentandstatepayrolldatathatsuggestsHurricaneBerylmayhaveimpactedtheweaknessintheJulyNFPdatacapstheUSTgains.•SolidUKretailsalesdatasendfront-endgiltshigherrelativetopeers(2ygilts:+3bp)androundoutabusyweekforUKdata;GBPgains1.4%againsttheUSDfortheweekfollowingthestrongeconomicoutlook.•NewZealandratesfallasRBNZAssistantGovernorSilksaysthatingettinginflationbacktotarget,anextendedperiodofcontractionintheeconomymaybenecessary;...