Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary August 14-109855131(1)

MUpdateGlobalMacroCommentary|NorthAmericaAugust14MorganStanley&Co.LLCAlexandraMaierStrategistAlexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com+1212761-0428MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+DominicJKrummenacherStrategistDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com+44207425-9781MorganStanley&Co.LLCLenoyDujonUS/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+HirokiYagiResearchAssociateHiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5412MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GekTengKhooStrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303CoolingCPIsupportsimminentFedcuts;USTsselloffonuptickinOERbutparelosses;giltsoutperformduetolowUKservicesinflation;RBNZcutsratesandoffersdovishguidance;CGBsrally;USD/ZARfalls;DXYat102.61(+0.0%);US10yat3.835%(-0.8bp).•In-lineUSinflationdatawithHeadlineCPIslowingto2.9%(P:3.0%)andCoreCPIcoolingto3.2%(P:3.3%)continuetosupportthebeliefthattheFedwillsoonbegincuttingrates.;equitiesrallyonthebackofreinforcedconfidenceforaSeptemberratecut(S&P500:+0.4%).•USTssellofffollowinganuptickinUSrent,OER,andcoreservicesex-shelterinflation,buttheypartiallyparelossesasmarketparticipantsawaitfurtherclarityontheUSgrowthoutlookwithretailsalesdataahead.•GiltsoutperformrelativetoUSTsandEGBsafteradownsidesurprisetoUKinflationdrivenbyweakservices;marketpricingimplies~2BoEcutsthroughtheendoftheyear.•...