Morgan Stanley Fixed-Asia Economics The Viewpoint How Asian Central Banks Will ...-109818561(1)

MIdeaAsiaEconomics|AsiaPacificTheViewpoint:HowAsianCentralBanksWillReactDomesticconditionswilldeterminewhethercentralbankswillcut,hikeorstayonhold.Butindeterminingthetimingandthepaceofitsnextmoves,AsiancentralbankswillbeconsideringthetrioofUSgrowth,FedpolicypathandtheUSD.MorganStanleyAsiaLimitedChetanAhyaChiefAsiaEconomistChetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com+8522239-7812MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.DerrickYKamAsiaEconomistDerrick.Kam@morganstanley.com+656834-8272MorganStanleyAsiaLimitedJonathanCheungEconomistJonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com+8522848-5652KellyWangEconomistKelly.Wang@morganstanley.com+8523963-0891Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.KeyTakeawaysThekeydebateisstillUSrecessionrisks.OurUSeconomicsteamcontinuestoexpectasoftlandingwiththeFedonlycuttingratesto3.625%byend-2025.ForAsiancentralbanks,theUSgrowthdebatemattersintheformofFedpolicyandwhatitmeansfortheoutlookfortheUSD.Frombothaninterestratedifferentialandgrowthdifferentialvs.restofworldperspective,ourstrategistsbelievethedollarcouldremainsupported.Thebackdropofless-favourableratedifferentialsandrelativelyweakAsiancurrenciesmeansthatcentralbankswilllikelymoveonlyaftertheFed.Asia’sratecutcyclewillalsobeshallowerascomparedtotheFed,withtheweightedaveragerateinAsiaexJapanfallingby30bpvs.175bpintheUS.August12...