NorthAmericaEconomicResearch15August2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEconomicandPolicyResearchAbielReinhart(1-212)2704058abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAIndustrialreportsoutthismorningincludedthefirstAugustregionalFedmanufacturingsurveysandtheJulyindustrialproductreport.Themanufacturingsurveyswereonbalanceabitweakerthanthepriormonthbutdon’tsignalanysharpchangesintrend,whileabigdropinthevolatileautoproductioncategoryhelddownIP,evenasmanufacturingoutputexautoscontinuestorise.JulyindustrialproductionTotalIPregisteredasizable0.6%m/mdecline,withmanufacturingfalling0.3%,miningflat,andutilitiesdown3.7%.Themanufacturingfallwasledbya7.8%decreaseinmotorvehicleandparts,andexcludingthatmanufacturingwasup0.3%.Manufacturingexautos,whichhasincreased5%annualizedinthelastthreemonths,hasgenerallybeentrendingupsincethestartoftheyearafterhavingdeclinedoverthepriorcoupleyears.Thedropinautoproductionwaslikelyrelatedtounusuallylargesummerautoplantshutdowns,whichappearedtohavealsocontributedtoariseinjoblessclaimsinMichiganandanincreaseintemporarylayoffsrecordedintheJulyemploymentreport.Thedropinmotorvehicleoutputwassufficienttoproduceanotherdeclineinbusinessequipmentoutput(-0.2%).Whilethiscategoryhasgenerallybeenfallingoverthelasttwoyears,drivenbydeclinesinindustrialequipment,thenon-autosegmentswereupinJuly,especial...
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