JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-109894324(1)

1MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAAbielReinhart(1-212)2704058abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAMuratTasci(1-212)622-0288murat.tasci@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCNorthAmericaEconomicResearch16August2024JPMORGANThedataflownextweekslowstoatrickle.Instead,themostnotabledevelopmentwilllikelybeFedchairPowell’sremarksattheannualJacksonHolesymposium.TherehasbeenonlylimitedFed-speaksincethedisappointingJulyjobsreport.Ofthosewhohavespokenmosthaveassertedthatriskstotheemploymentandinflationmandatesareclosetobalanced.Theygenerallyhavealsojudgedthatpolicyiscur-rentlyrestrictive.Inthissettingwethinkitmakessensetogetpolicybacktoneutralquicklyandbelievea50bpreductioninthefundsrateattheSeptemberFOMCmeetingiswarranted.Thatsaid,wedoubtChairPowellwillpre-judgetheoutcomeofthatmeeting,givenalmostafullmonthofdatareleasesbetweennowandthen.InflationgeniegetsbackinthebottleThisweeksawthereleaseofthefullsuiteofJulyinflationdata—CPI,PPI,andimportprices—andthenetresultisthatweexpectonlyamodest0.12%increaseinthecorePCEpricegaugelastmonth.BothheadlineandcoreCPIrose0.2%onthemonth,withcoreveryclosetoourexpectations(areal-ized0.165%unroundedprintversusourforecastof0.170%)butheadlineslightlysofter.Asaresu...