JPMorgan Econ FI-Greater China-109893096(1)

1HaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchGraceNg(852)2800-7002grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comTingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comJiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@jpmorgan.comAsiaPacificEconomicResearchGlobalDataWatch17August2024JPMORGANgrowth.DespitethepolicyshiftsincetheJulyPolitburomeet-ing,themagnitudeofpolicyadjustmentrunstheriskofbeinginsufficienttostabilizetheeconomy.ActivityremainedsoftinJulyChina’sJulyactivitydatagenerallycameinontheweakside,withsignificantslowinginexports,slowingFAIandongoinghousingdrag,whiledomesticconsumptionpickedupmoder-ately(afterthecontractioninJune).IPgrew5.1%oya,remainingflatm/msa(0.0%),followinga1.1%m/msariseinJune(Figure2).Retailsalesgrew2.7%oya(rising0.8%m/msa,followingthedeclineof1.3%m/msainJune).Serviceproductiongrowthcameinat4.8%oya(vs.4.7%oyainJune).Regardingthelabormarket,thesurvey-basedunemploymentraterose0.2%-ptto5.2%inJuly.-20-10010203040-10-50510152012131415161718192021222324%change,bothscalesFigure2:Chinaindustrialproduction%3m/3msaar%oyaSource:NBS,J.P.MorganFixedinvestmentcameinbelowexpectations,rising3.6%oyainJanuary-July,oramodestpaceof1.9%oyainJuly.Afur-therbreakdownshowsmoderationinmanufacturingFAI(8.3%oyainJuly,vs.9.3%inJune)andfurtherslowingininfraFAI(2.0%oyainJuly,vs.4.6%inJune),alongwithongoingsluggishnessinreales...