AsiaPacificEconomicResearch13August2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearchHaibinZhu(852)2800-7039haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.comGraceNg(852)2800-7002grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comTingtingGe(852)2800-0143tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comJiYan(852)2800-7673ji.yan@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch•Julycreditcameinbelowexpectations.TSFflowprintedat771bnyuanandTSFgrowthedgedupto8.2%oya.Newloancreationcameinweakat260bnyuan,withloangrowthslowingto8.7%oya.Meanwhile,M2growthedgedupto6.3%butM1growthregisteredanotherrecordlowat-6.6%oya.•CNYloancomponentinTSFregisteredthefirstmonthlydeclineonrecord(-77bnyuan),reflectingweakloandemandbutalsobanks’lowincentivetolendunderlowinterestrates,NIMcompressionandcapitaladequacypressure(especiallyforsmallerbanks).Non-loancomponentsinTSFwereinlinewithexpectationsinJuly,withnetgovernmentbondissuanceat691bnyuan,netcorporatebondissuanceat203bnyuanandnetdeclineinshadowcreditof76bnyuan.•Ourforecastslookforanother25bpRRRcutin3Qand10bpratecutin4Q.ChangingFedrateoutlookandmitigatedCNYdepreciationpressureopenroomforthePBOCtomaintainsmall-stepratecutsinthecomingquarters.Butoverall,monetarypolicycanhardlybelabelledasaccommodativegiventheslowpaceofratecutsandweakcreditgrowth.DespitethepolicyshiftsincetheJulypolitburomeeting,themagnitudeofpolicyadjustmentrunst...
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