Barclays_Global_Macro_Thoughts_A_fragile_calm(1)

Restricted-ExternalFOCUS12August2024GlobalMacroThoughtswillnotbepublishedinthesecondhalfofAugustandwillreturninearlySeptember.GlobalMacroThoughtsAfragilecalmAjayRajadhyaksha+12124127669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI,USMaxKitson+44(0)2035552386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays,UKKaanhariSingh+85229032651kaanhari.singh@barclays.comBarclaysBank,HongKongWherenotedinthesourcenotes,theviewsexpressedwithinthisreportaretakenfrompreviouslypublishedresearch.Forfurtherdetail,includingimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications,pleasefollowthelinksoneachpageandonpage8.ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.Pleaseseeanalystcertificationsandimportantdisclosuresbeginningonpage9.FICCResearchGlobalMacroRestricted-ExternalTheworldataglance•DecentUSdata,dovishremarksfromtheBoJ,andasteadyFedcalmedmarketslastweek•Theviolentcarrytradeunwindisoverfornow–inourview•AnyfurthersharpmovesarelikelytobeafunctionofweakerincomingUSdata•TheUSoutlookstillseemsreasonable;economicweaknessisshowingupelsewhere•Mak...