韩国央行-韩国经济展望（2024年5月）（英）-119页

ThisreportistheEnglishversionofthe“KoreaEconomicOutlook”publishedonMay29,2024.PleasecontacttheResearchDepartmentattheemailaddressbelowifyouhaveanyquestionsregardingthecontentsorwouldliketorequestpermissioninadvanceforreproducingorcopyingthecontentsofthisreportforcommercialpurposes.Pleasecreditthesourcewhenquoting,reproducing,orcopyingthecontentsofthisreportfornon-commercialpurposes.ResearchDepartment,BusinessCycleTeam,BankofKoreaecontrend@bok.or.krContentsExecutiveSummaryⅠ.MacroeconomicConditionsandOutlook1.DomesticandInternationalEconomicConditionsGlobalEconomyKorea’sEconomyMainPremisesoftheBaselineOutlook2.MacroeconomicOutlookforKoreaEconomicGrowthCurrentAccountPricesEmployment3.RiskAssessmentKeyRiskstotheOutlookDistributionofGrowthProjectionsbyMajorInstitutionsScenarioAnalysis11712131318202325252526Box1AssessmentofRecentG2EconomicSituationsandImplicationsBox2AssessmentofRecentSemiconductorBusinessCycle2835Ⅱ.KeyIssuesHighPricesandConsumption:WithaFocusontheHeterogeneousImpactoftheHouseholdConsumptionBasketandFinancialAssets39Ⅲ.In-DepthAnalysisInnovationandEconomicGrowth:ReviewofKoreanFirms'InnovationPerformance56Appendix.KeyIndicators104iExecutiveSummaryIn2024,Korea'srealGDPisexpectedtogrowby2.5%,higherthanthepreviousforecastof2.1%inFebruary,astherecoverymomentumofexportsstrengthenedandimprovementin...