2024年亚洲发展展望报告7月刊（英）-11页

HIGHLIGHTS�GrowthindevelopingAsiaacceleratedinthefirstquarterof2024onresilientdomesticdemandandstrongexportgrowth,particularlyinelectronics.Theregion’sgrowthforecastfor2024isincreasedslightlyto5.0%,whilethe2025projectionismaintainedat4.9%.�EastAsia’s2024growthprojectionisrevisedupto4.6%onstrongexportsofsemiconductorsandothergoodsdrivenbytheartificialintelligenceboom,withthe2025projectionmaintainedat4.2%.�Despitesomechangesinindividualeconomies,growthforecastsforSoutheastAsiaremainat4.6%in2024and4.7%in2025,andforthePacificat3.3%in2024and4.0%in2025.�ThegrowthforecastforSouthAsiaremainssteadyat6.3%for2024,withthe2025projectiondownmarginallyto6.5%.�TheoutlookforgrowthintheCaucasusandCentralAsiaisraisedto4.5%from4.3%in2024and5.1%from5.0%in2025.�HeadlineinflationindevelopingAsiaisnowforecasttoeasefurtherfrom3.3%lastyearto2.9%thisyear,stabilizingat3.0%in2025.�InterestratesintheUnitedStatesandotheradvancedeconomiescontinuetoshapetheoutlook,whichissubjecttoseveraldownsiderisks.UncertaintyontheUnitedStateselectionoutcome,elevatedgeopoliticaltensionsandtradefragmentation,propertymarketfragilityinthePeople’sRepublicofChina,andweather-relatedeventscouldhurtgrowth.Meanwhile,LaNiñaisanupsideriskduetoexpectedhigherrainfallandcoolertemperatures.RecentDevelopmentsDevelopingAsia’sgrowthacceleratedearlythisyear,suppo...