硅谷银行-2024年第三季度经济报告（英）-29页

QuarterlyEconomicReport3rdQuarter2024SVBAssetManagementviewsoneconomicandmarketfactorsaffectingglobalmarketsandbusinesshealthClicktoeditMastertitlestyleOverview3DomesticEconomy4ForeignExchange10CentralBanksandMonetaryPolicy13CorporateBondMarket17MarketsandPerformance21QuarterlyEconomicReportPublishedinQ32024|DataforQ22024•TheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)continuedtoholdthefedfundsratesteadyatarangeof5.25%to5.50%atitsJunemeeting.Thecommitteeupdateditsfedfundsforecasttoone25-basispoint(bps)ratecutin2024.•TheFOMCnoted“modest”progresshasbeenmadetowardits2%inflationobjective.ChairmanJeromePowellreinforcedthattheywouldliketoseemoredatatobeconfidentthatadeclineininflationissustainable.•WhilethelabormarketandGDPremainsolid,therehavebeenindicationsofweakeningfromahistoricallystrongposition.•Consumersentimentreportsreflectthatconsumersremaincautious,andwillcontinuetobeinfluencedbyinflationaswellastheuncertaintyaboutthestrengthofthelabormarket.QUARTERLYECONOMICREPORT|#0724-0105TD-0630253OverviewKeyTakeawaysTheUSDslidesdownwardafterthefirsthalfof2024.AstheFedprovidesclarityonitsmonetarypolicyandmarketspriceinratecutsin2024and2025,narrowerinterestratedifferentialswillputpressureontheUSD.Fixedincomeyieldshavereboundedsincethebeginningof2024.Thefirsthalfof2024sawshorter-durationgovernmentbondsbenefitfromtheFed’sact...