EQUITYRESEARCH|August06,2024|5:44PMHKTGoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.AyearagoourChinateamdeconstructedChina’ssupplychainamidstunprecedentedchangestotheoutlook,tobuildapictureofresilience,opportunityandvulnerability.Ayearonandayearworse,wesamplesevensignificantglobalmanufacturingindustriesrepresenting22%ofChina'sGDPgrowth.Infivesectors,theseindustrieshavebuiltmorecapacitythantheentireglobaldemandpool—imbalancesthathaveleftmorethan50%ofcapacityrunningatzeroornegativecashmargins.AsChina'stransitioncontinues,weaskhowcyclicalaretheseimbalances,howmuchfurthercantheygoandhowmightwegaugeinflectionpointsahead.WeconcludethatChinesemanufacturersarerespondingtopoorprofitabilityanduncertaintiesaroundlimitationstomarketaccesstotheUSandEU,pre-emptivelyadjustingthepaceoffutureadditionsofcapacity,incontrasttoconsensusnarratives.Weexpectarebalancinginsupplyver...
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