欧洲央行-平均通胀目标制：在多大程度上审视过去和未来？（英）-2024.7-48页

WorkingPaperSeriesAverageinflationtargeting:howfartolookintothepastandthefuture?FrantisekMasek,JanZemlickaDisclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.No2955AbstractWeanalyzetheoptimalwindowlengthintheaverageinflationtargetingrulewithinaBehavioralTHANKmodel.Thecentralbankfacesanoccasionallybind-ingeffectivelowerbound(ELB)orpersistentsupplyshocks,andcanalsousequan-titativeeasing.Weshowthattheoptimalaveragingperiodisinfinitelylonggivenaconventionaldegreeofmyopia.Finiteyetlong-lastingwindowsdominateforhighercognitivediscounting;i.e.,themakeuppropertyisshowntobequalitativelyresistanttodeviationfromrationalexpectations.Wepointoutthattheoptimalwindowmaydependonthespeedofreturntothetargetpath.WesolvethemodelbothlocallyandgloballytodisentangletheeffectsofuncertaintyduetotheELB.Thewelfarelossdifferencebetweensolutiontechniquesisconsiderablydecreas-inginthedegreeofhistorydependence.Keywords:MonetaryPolicy,AverageInflationTargeting,HeterogeneousAgents,BehavioralMacroeconomicsJELclassification:E31,E32,E52,E58,E71ECBWorkingPaperSeriesNo29551Non-technicalsummaryThechangeinmonetarypolicystrategythattheUSFederalReservemadeinAu-gust2020attractedagreatdealofinteresttotheaverageinflationtargeting(AIT)rule(s...