欧洲央行-能源危机中的再分配、生产率和货币政策（英）-2024.7-52页

WorkingPaperSeriesReallocation,productivity,andmonetarypolicyinanenergycrisisBorisChafwehé,AndreaColciago,RomanosPriftisDisclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.No2961AbstractThispaperintroducesaNewKeynesianmulti-sectorindustrymodelthatintegratesfirmheterogeneity,entry,andexitdynamics,whileconsideringenergyproductionfrombothfossilfuelsandrenewables.Weinvestigatetheeffectsofasustainedincreaseinfossilfuelpricesonsectoralsize,laborproductivity,andinflation.Ahikeinthepriceoffossilresourcesresultsinhigherenergyprices.Duetoex-anteheterogeneityinenergyintensityinproduction,theprofitabilityofsectorsisimpactedasymmetrically.Asproductioncostsrise,lessefficientfirmsleavethemarket,whilenewentrantsmustdisplayhigheridiosyncraticproductivity.Whilethisprocessenhancesaveragelaborproductivity,italsoresultsinalastingdecreaseintheentryofnewfirms.Acentralbankwithastronganti-inflationarystancecancircumventtheenergypriceincreaseandmitigateitsinflationaryeffectsbycurbingrisingproductioncosts.Thispolicyentailsahigherimpactcostintermsofoutputandloweraverageproductivity,butleadstoafasterrecoveryinbusinessdynamism.Thus,ourresultssuggestthatmonetarypolicyfacesatrade-offbetweenstabilizingaggregateactivityandbusin...