欧洲央行-超越国界：地缘政治如何影响贸易（英）-2024.7-39页

WorkingPaperSeriesBeyondborders:howgeopoliticsisreshapingtradeCostanzaBosone,GiovanniStamatoDisclaimer:ThispapershouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheECB.No2960AbstractRisingtradetensions,aspateoftrade-inhibitingpolicymeasuresandaweakeningofmultilateralinstitutionshavesparkedagrowingconcernaboutthepotentialimplicationsofglobaltradefragmentation.Yet,empiricalevidencethatgeopoliticalconsiderationsarealreadymateriallyaffectingtradeflowsisscant.Inthisstudy,wequantifytheimpactofgeopoliticaltensionsontradeofmanufacturinggoodsovertheperiod2012-2022inastructuralgravityframework.Tocapturetheinfluenceofgeopoliticaltensions,weuseameasureofgeopoliticaldistancebasedontheUNGeneralAssemblyvoting.Theeconometricanalysisoffersrobustevidencethatgeopoliticaldistancehasbecomeatradefrictionanditsimpacthassteadilyincreasedovertime.Ourresultssuggestthata10%increaseingeopoliticaldistance,liketheobservedincreaseintheUS-Chinadistancesince2018,isassociatedwithareductionintradebyabout2%.Ourfindingsalsohighlightadifferentialandstrongerimpactonadvancedeconomiesandtheemergenceoffriend-shoring.JEL-Classification:F10,F13,F14.F15.Keywords:tradefragmentation,structuralgravitymodels,geopolitics,friend-shoring,tradecosts.ECBWorkingPaperSeries...