国会预算办公室对工资收入分配的预测（英）-2024.7-7页

PresentationattheNBERSummerInstitute2024:EconomicsofSocialSecurityJuly24,2024JamesPearceTaxAnalysisDivisionCBO’sProjectionoftheDistributionofWageEarningsFormoreinformationabouttheconference,seewww.nber.org/conferences/si-2024-economics-social-security.1CBOusesitsprojectionoftheearningsdistributiontohelpkeepitsvariousmodels,projections,andestimatesconsistentwithoneanother.Thosemodelsinclude:§Individualtaxmodel:incomeandpayrolltaxes;§SocialSecuritymodel:payrolltaxesandbenefitprojections;and§Healthinsurancesimulationmodel(HISIM):premiumtaxcredits,Medicaid,andemployer-sponsoredhealthinsurance.CBO’smacroeconomicandpopulationprojectionsarealsousedthroughouttheagencytohelpkeepmodels,projections,andestimatesconsistent.HowDoesCBOUseItsProjectedWageEarningsDistribution?2AsdefinedbyCBO,wageearningsequalthesumoffederallytaxablewagesandemployee-paidretirementcontributions.TheSocialSecurityAdministration(SSA)callsthis“netcompensation”andreportsdetaileddistributionsfortheprioryear’searningseveryOctober.Wageearningsexclude:–Employee-paidpremiumsforemployer-sponsoredhealthinsurance;–Employeecontributionsforflexiblespendingaccounts;–Employercontributionstoretirementaccounts;and–Employer-paidpremiumsforemployer-sponsoredhealthinsurance.ThosetypesofincomearegenerallynotobservedinW-2dataandareexcludedfromthefederalinc...