彼得森经济研究所-移民还是停滞：当今韩国的老龄化和经济增长，明天的世界（英）-2024.7-45页

1750MassachusettsAvenue,NW|Washington,DC20036-1903USA|+1.202.328.9000|www.piie.comWORKINGPAPERMichaelA.Clemens,nonresidentseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,isprofessorinthedepartmentofeconomicsatGeorgeMasonUniversity.24-18MigrationorStagnation:AgingandEconomicGrowthinKoreaToday,theWorldTomorrowMichaelA.ClemensJuly2024ABSTRACTSouthKoreafacesanunprecedentedeconomiccrisisdrivenbyrapidpopulationaging,asitapproachesafutureofnegativeeconomicgrowth.ThispaperexaminesthefullrangeofpossiblepolicyresponseswiththepotentialtorestoredynamismtotheKoreaneconomy.Contrarytomanyprioranalyses,IfindthatenhancedlabormigrationtoKoreaisnecessary,sufficient,andfeasible.Migrationisnecessarybecauseinthebestforecastswehave,nootherclassofpolicyhasthequantitativepotentialtomeaningfullyoffsetaging.MigrationissufficientbecauseenhancedtemporarylabormigrationbyitselfwouldoffsetmostofKorea’sdemographicdragongrowthoverthenext50years.AndmigrationisfeasiblebecausethelevelsofmigrationandtimescaleofthetransitionwouldresemblethatalreadycarriedoutbyMalaysiaandAustralia.ManyadvancedeconomieswillfollowinKorea’sdemographicfootstepsindecadestocome,andhavemuchtolearnfromthedecisionsthattheKoreangovernmentmakesnow.JELCodes:F22,J15,K37Keywords:Migration,SouthKorea,Labor,Demography,EconomicGrowth,PopulationAgingNote:Theauthorhadhe...