彼得森经济研究所-不确定的美国贸易环境下的韩国贸易政策议程（英）-2024.7-38页

1750MassachusettsAvenue,NW|Washington,DC20036-1903USA|+1.202.328.9000|www.piie.comWORKINGPAPERAlanWm.WolffisadistinguishedvisitingfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics.UntiljoiningPIIE,hewasdeputydirector-generaloftheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO).Han-kooYeo,formertradeministeroftheRepublicofKorea,isseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics.24-19Korea’sTradePolicyAgendainanUncertainUSTradeEnvironmentAlanWm.WolffandHan-kooYeoJuly2024ABSTRACTThispaperaddresseshowSouthKorea,amid-sizedallyoftheUnitedStates,canbestnavigateclearlyidentifiablerisks,craftingapositiveandpragmaticinternationaltradepolicy.KoreaisheavilydependentontheUnitedStatesforitsdefense.ItisclearthatUStradepolicyhasrecentlyshiftedtowardbeingmoreself-centered,apolicyunlikelytobereversedanytimesoon.TheUnitedStatesisonthethresholdofapresidentialelectionthatmakesitunpredictableinitstradepolicy,whichmaybecomedirectlyharmfultoKoreaneconomicprospectsifthereisachangeinleadership.UStradepoliciesunderPresidentJosephBidenhavebeenprimarilyaimedatonshoringratherthanfriendshoring,buttheyhavenotbeenactivelyhostileorthreatening.IfthereisasecondDonaldTrumpterm,Koreamightnotbeexcludedfromsubstantiallyincreasedtariffs—whetherforprotection,revenue,orleverage—despitetheKorea-UnitedStatesFreeTradeAgreement(KORUSFTA).AtthesametimethatKor...