Deutsche Bank-Fed Watcher Gotta keep those inflation good vibrations a-ha...-109288978

ResearchDeutscheBankAmyYang|(+1)2122509959|amy.yang@db.comJuly17,2024IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.FedWatcher:Gottakeepthoseinflationgoodvibrationsa-happenin’forSeptembercutDeutscheBankResearchAmyYangEconomist(+1)2122509959|amy.yang@db.comMatthewLuzzettiChiefUSEconomist(+1)2122506161|matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294|brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679|justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayResearchAssociateavik-a.chattopadhyay@db.comJuly17,2024Distributedon:17/07/202420:40:09GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaResearchDeutscheBankAmyYang|(+1)2122509959|amy.yang@db.comJuly17,2024DBFedWatcher:Gottakeepthoseinflationgoodvibrationsa-happenin’forSeptembercut2FedspeakWho**TakeawaysBias*Powell(07/09,10,15)▪Last3inflationreadings“prettygoodpace”,addedtoconfidence▪Policyrestrictivebutnotseverely▪No.1thingkeepingmeupispolicybalance’▪Inflationnottheonlyriskweface▪Labormarketstrongbutalongwitheconomy,notoverheated;fullybackinbalancetopre-pandemicconditions;dualrisksmorebalanced▪Inflationeased‘notably’but>2%▪R*isprobablydrivenbyslowmovingforces;likelyhigherthaninter-crisisera▪Requiringbankstousediscountwindowcanhel...