Barclays-Barclays Metals Mining Mined Matters-109315002

BarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.Pleaseseeanalystcertificationsandimportantdisclosuresbeginningonpage12.BarclaysMetals&MiningMinedMattersOurweeklybriefingcoveringtopnewsflowinthespace,chartoftheweek,latestpositioningdata,commoditypricemoves,soundbitesfromthesupplychain,recentglobalresearch,upcomingeventsandcorporateaccess.ChartoftheWeekFIGURE1.BHP'smetcoalproductionguidancethisweektoexitFY29at43-45mtisbullishmetcoalprices,givenAustraliawasoneofthefewsourcesofseabornemetcoalsupplyadditions.ItwilltakeBHP~5yearstorebuilddepletedinternalinventoriesfollowing3yearsofLaNinawetweatherconditions,catchuponstrippingandreturnproductionclosetopriorlevels.Inadditiontothemedium-termoutageofAnglo'sGrosvenormine,weseemetcoalmarketswell-supported.PositiveforGLEN(OW)whichhas7%EPSsensitivitytoevery10%moveinmetcoalprice.43.247.346.747.747.543.644.034.434.035.037.039.041.043.001020304050602017201820192020202120222023202420...