Barclays_Global_Macro_Thoughts_A_political_earthquake_in_the_US

Restricted-ExternalFOCUS22July2024GlobalMacroThoughtsApoliticalearthquakeintheUSAjayRajadhyaksha+12124127669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI,USMaxKitson+44(0)2035552386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays,UKKaanhariSingh+85229032651kaanhari.singh@barclays.comBarclaysBank,HongKongWherenotedinthesourcenotes,theviewsexpressedwithinthisreportaretakenfrompreviouslypublishedresearch.Forfurtherdetail,includingimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications,pleasefollowthelinksoneachpageandonpage8.ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.Pleaseseeanalystcertificationsandimportantdisclosuresbeginningonpage9.FICCResearchGlobalMacroRestricted-ExternalCompleted:22-Jul-24,10:49GMTReleased:22-Jul-24,10:54GMTRestricted-ExternalTheworldataglance•EvenasTrumpclinchestheRepublicannomination,massiveupheavalontheDemocraticside•TheUSDhasstruggledinrecentweeks,buttariffsonthehorizonremainadollarpositive•China’sThirdPlenumfailstoexcite,andtheBoJremainsontrackforaJulyhike•USequitieshaveseenastunningrotationoutofB...