JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Data Watch Let the games begin-109458129

GlobalEconomicResearch26July2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEconomicandPolicyResearchBruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNANoraSzentivanyi(44-20)7134-7544nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcGlobalDataWatch•RisksoflessrotationinJulysurveys...•…butindicatorsstillpointtosolidoverallglobalgrowth•BalancinggrowthandinflationriskopensdoorforDMeasing•Nextweek:Fedonhold;BoJhikes;USjobgainsslowLetthegamesbeginLastweek,wedescribedtheglobalexpansionasmovingthroughanorderlytransitionwithanticipatedrotationstowardmanufacturingandawayfromtheUStakingholdamidstamoderationinglobalGDPgrowthtoatrend-likepace.IncomingJulysurveyreadingschallengeourviewsonbothoftheserotations.Thelatestdownshiftinmanufacturingsurveysisaccompaniedbypositivereadingsfromtheservicesector.DisappointmentintheEuroareaandChina,meanwhile,cometogetherwithpositivesurprisesfromtheUSandEMex.China.Givenourperspectivethatbalanceacrossregionsandsectorspromotesresilience,thisnewsshiftsgrowthrisksdownward.However,theshiftisnotsubstantialenoughtopointtoameaningfulthreattotheexpansion.WejudgetheUSandglobalexpansionasstillstandingonfirmgroundatmidyearandseeriskstooursecond-halfglobalforecastfor2.1%arglobalGDPgrowthasstillmodestlyskewedtothe...