JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-109319928

1MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comMuratTasci(1-212)622-0288murat.tasci@jpmchase.comAbielReinhart(1-212)2704058abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comNorthAmericaEconomicResearch19July2024JPMORGANdoingtherightthing.”WhenaskedaboutFedratecutsbeforetheelection,Trumpstated“It’ssomethingtheyknowtheyshouldn’tbedoing.”InawebinarthisweekwithSarahBind-er,anotedscholarofFedpolitics,wediscussedvariouswaystheWhiteHousecanexertinfluenceonthecentralbank.TheFedwillbequietnextweekaheadoftheFOMCmeetingthefollowingweek.Butthedataflowwillnotbequiet.MuchoftheremainingJunedatawillbereleased,includingcon-sumerspending,durablegoodsorders,andnewandexistinghomesales.Thursdaybringsthefirstlookat2QrealGDP;weexpectamodestaccelerationfromthe1.5%growthpacein1Qto2.0%lastquarter.Friday’sJunecorePCEinflationreportisexpectedtoshowa0.2%m/mincreaseinpriceslastmonth,leavingtheyear-agoincreaseunchangedat2.6%.ConsumersgettheirmojobackRetailsaleswerestrongerthanexpectedinJune,andwesee2Qrealconsumerspendingtracking2.0%q/qsaar,abitstron-gerthanourpriorassumptionbeforethereport.Totalnominalretailsalesandfoodservicesspendingwasunchangedinthemonth,draggeddownbydeclinesforsalesofmotorvehiclesandatgasstations,butexcludingthosecategoriesspendingroseasolid0.8%m/m....