JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-109458113

1MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comMuratTasci(1-212)622-0288murat.tasci@jpmchase.comAbielReinhart(1-212)2704058abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comNorthAmericaEconomicResearch26July2024JPMORGANtainedmovehigherfromherewouldbemoreconcerning.Meanwhile,thehousingmarketappearstohavetakenanotherlegdowninrecentmonthsevenasmortgagerateshavedrift-edloweroverthesameperiod.FedontrackforSeptembereaseAgainstthisbackdrop,theFOMCmeetsnextweek.Despiteafewhigh-profilecallsfortheFedtostartcuttingnextweek,thatdoesnotappeartobeinthecards.Rather,welookforeasingtocommenceinSeptemberprovidedtheincomingdatacontinuetoalignwiththeCommittee’sexpectations.ThisislikelytobesignaledbysomemodestchangestothestatementlanguageaswellasChairPowellconcedingthattheFedisgaininggreaterconfidencethatinflationisonapathbackto2%.Butwestillexpecthimtostressdatadepen-dence(andthusavoiddescribingthefirstcutas“consequen-tial”),aswellassuggestdecisionswillbemademeetingbymeetingandtoavoidgivinganysenseoftheexpectedpaceofeasing.Thedaysofexplicitcalendarguidancearelikelybehindus.Elsewhereinthestatement,thecharacterizationofthelabormarketislikelytoremain,with“strong”jobgainsand“low”unemployment.Oninflation,thestatementcoulddrop”mod-est”fromthecharacterizationoffur...