NorthAmericaEconomicResearch24July2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEconomicandPolicyResearchAbielReinhart(1-212)2704058abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNANewsingle-familyhomesalesweresoftforthesecondstraightmonthinJune,falling0.6%m/mto617ksaaraftera15%declineinMay,whichleavessalesdown4%q/qsaar.AlthoughsaleshadbeenstrongbackinApriltheyhavegenerallybeenslowlycomingdownoverthelastyearandhavenowfallen7%oyaasbuyerscontinuetocontendwiththeaffordabilitychallengesfromhighpricesandmortgagerates.Recentdailymortgageratesaredownabout15bpsfromJuneandcloseto25bpsfromMaywhichwillhelpsalesonthemargin,butthedeclineisstillquitesmallandweeklymortgagepurchaseapplicationsthroughtheendoflastweekremainednearcyclelows.TheNABHindexalsosuggestedsalescouldremainlowinJuly.Althoughnewhomesalescontinuetodomateriallybetterthanexistinghomesales,inventorieskeepedgingup,whichcouldleadbuilderstorestrainnewresidentialconstructioninthemonthsahead(single-familystartsalreadyfell19%q/qsaarin2Q).Forinventories,therewasanother0.8%m/m(11%oya)increaseinJuneasthenumberofunitsavailableforsalesetanothercyclehigh,andthemonths’supplyhit9.3,comparedtothe2019averageof5.8.Onthepositiveside,whiletheproportionofinventorythathasalreadybeencompleted(21%)andthemediannumberofmonthsacompletedhomehasbeenavailableforsale(2.3)havebothincreasedfrompost-pand...
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