JPMorgan-Equity Strategy Q2 Preview Consensus call for the EPS narro...-109343333

GlobalMarketsStrategy22July2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEquityStrategyMislavMatejka,CFAAC(44-20)7134-9741mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcPrabhavBhadani,CFA(44-20)7742-4404prabhav.bhadani@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcNityaSaldanha,CFA(4420)77429986nitya.saldanha@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcKarishmaManpuria,CFA(91-22)6157-4115karishma.manpuria@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedActivitymomentumpointstoapickupinearnings,suggestingsomebeatsarelikely...-8%-5%3%6%13%9%7%14%23%25%26%14%2%2%0%2%-16%-27%-6%6%54%81%38%32%8%7%3%-3%-2%-5%5%9%8%9%-20%-8%1%11%25%14%9%16%9%11%9%5%1%0%-1%4%-26%-25%-16%-12%42%69%43%35%35%19%25%9%9%-8%-8%-8%-8%1%485052545658-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%1Q'163Q'161Q'173Q'171Q'183Q'181Q'193Q'191Q'203Q'201Q'213Q'211Q'223Q'221Q'233Q231Q'24S&P500EPSGrowth,%yoyStoxx600GlobalcompositePMI(rhs)...havingsaidthat,thetolerancefordissapointmentsissmall,asdowngradesintotheresultswerelowerthannormal9596979899100101102Apr24May24Jun24Jul24S&P500Q2'24eEPS($,rebasedto100)MedianquarterlyEPSprojectionsmoveintoresultsTheconsensusisyetagainbettingontheconvergenceinearningsbetweenMag-7andtherest,butthatwasdisappointedoneachofthepast5occasions-3.2%-2.0%-5.0%5.1%8.7%7.6%9.1%0.4%-3.4%-9.8%-1.8%-0.1%-0.5%5.5%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Q4'22Q1'23Q2'23Q3'23Q4'23Q1'24Q2'24eS&P500EarningsGrowthS...