JPMorgan-Japan Equity Strategy Apr-Jun earnings outlook Expect stron...-109235931

GlobalMarketsStrategy16July2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEquityStrategyRieNishiharaAC(81-3)6736-8629rie.nishihara@jpmorgan.comJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.YongGuo,CFA(81-3)6736-8623yong.guo@jpmorgan.comJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.MansiDas(91)2261573343mansi.das@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedApr-Junresultsannouncementsareabouttobegin.BetweenJuly29andAugust4,80%ofTSEPrimecompaniesarescheduledtoannounceresults(Figure1).WeexpectresultstobestrongrelativetotheFY2024guidancethatTOPIXcompaniesprovidedinApril-May,whichcalledforsalesgrowthbutprofitdeclines.Inparticular,sharpyendepreciationinApr-Jun(by8%againstthedollarsinceend-March)hassupportedearningsofoverseasdemand-drivencompaniesbutweighedonearningsatcompaniesdrivenbydomesticdemand.TheJuneBOJTankansurveyreleasedJuly1showedimprovementsinbusinessconditionsinthechemical,materials,pulp&paper,textile,andinformation&communicationssectorsanddeteriorationsinconditionsinthesteel,machinery,auto,retail,andfoodsectors.Meanwhile,theEPSrevisionindexroseforsectorsthatbenefitfromtheweakyen,suchasbanks,insurance,precisioninstruments,andwholesale,andfellfortheauto,electricalequipment,andinformation&communicationssectors.Wethinkthechemical,material,andinformation&communicationssectorshaveupsidethathasnotbeenpricedin.InFY2023,stockpricesmovedsubstantiallyafterApr...