JPMorgan-Japan Equity Strategy Downward pressure on stocks from stron...-109272043

GlobalMarketsStrategy17July2024JPMORGANwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEquityStrategyRieNishiharaAC(81-3)6736-8629rie.nishihara@jpmorgan.comJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.YongGuo,CFA(81-3)6736-8623yong.guo@jpmorgan.comJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.MansiDas(91)2261573343mansi.das@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedJapaneseequitypriceshavecontinuedtorisefromtheJune17low,thoughwithsomevolatility(Figure1).Foreigninvestors’buyingalsorecoveredto¥0.9trillionintheweektoJuly4(Figure2).Sharepricesswungwidelylastweek(July8-12).DownwardpressureontheyeneasedinthelatterhalfoftheweekasJuly5USemploymentdataraisedexpectationsofFRBinterestratescuts,andupwardmomentuminJapanesesharepricesgainedpace.Electricalappliances&precisioninstruments,information&communication,chemicals,andinsurancedrovethismarketupswing.However,theUSdollarsubsequentlyweakened/yenstrengthened,affectedbysoftUSCPIdataonJuly11andspeculationaboutcurrencyintervention,andbothTOPIXandtheNikkei225fellsharplyonJuly12.Electricalappliances&precisioninstruments,insurance,machinery,andautomobileswerethedriversofthisdecline(Figure3).WestickfirmlywithourviewthattheJapanesestockmarketwillbreakoutofitstradingrangeandriseinthelatterhalfoftheyearevenunderthishighsharepricevolatility.ThisisbecauseJapan’sEconomicSurpriseIndexhasstartedtoimproveasEuropeanandUSmomentumfalters(th...