Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary July 16-109272027

MUpdateGlobalMacroCommentary|NorthAmericaJuly16MorganStanley&Co.LLCAlexandraMaierStrategistAlexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com+1212761-0428ZoeKStraussStrategistZoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com+1212761-0407MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+HiromuUezatoResearchAssociateHiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-8431MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GekTengKhooStrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303InstitutionalInvestorGlobalFixedIncomePollisnowopen.Wehopeyouhaveenjoyedourresearchoverthepastyearandappreciateyoursupport.Requestyourballot.USTsbull-flattendespitestrongretailsales;Fed'sKuglerseesratecuts"soonerthanlater"ifunemploymentrises;Canadainflationsurprisestothedownside;giltsrallyaftersoftgrocerypricedata;THBstrengthens,supportedbyriseingold;DXYat104.24(+0.0%);US10yat4.158%(-7.2bp).•The2024InstitutionalInvestor(II)GlobalFixed-IncomeSurveyisopen.Ifyouenjoyourwork,pleaserateusfivestarsinthefollowingcategories:Global>MacroStrategy,Global>Economics,andregionallyinthefollowingcategories:Fixed-IncomeStrategy,InterestRateStrategy,Currency&ForeignExchange,andCross-AssetStrategy.Thanksforyourreadershipandsupport!•Blocktradesandmarketfundamentalssupportabull-flatteninginUSTsdespiteabroad-basedupsidesurpriseinJuneUSretailsalesdatacoupledwithupwardrevisionstoMaydata.•FedGovernorKuglerreiteratesthatiffavorableecono...