Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary June 20-108792116

MUpdateGlobalMacroCommentary|NorthAmericaJune20MorganStanley&Co.LLCAlexandraMaierStrategistAlexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com+1212761-0428ZoeKStraussStrategistZoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com+1212761-0407LenoyDujonUS/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+LorenzoTestaStrategistLorenzo.Testa@morganstanley.com+44207677-0337MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+HiromuUezatoResearchAssociateHiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-8431MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GekTengKhooStrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303BoEonhold,butminutesleandovish;NOKstrengthenswhileCHFweakensamidrespectivecentralbankmeetings;USD/IDRreachesnewrecenthigh;USTsselloff;JGBstwist-flattenafterMoFconsidersnewissuanceplan;MXNstrengthensintraday;DXYat105.66(+0.4%);US10yat4.259%(+3.7bp).•BoEleavesratesunchangedina7–2vote,butminutesindicatethatforsomemembersthedecisiontomaintainthepolicyratewas“finelybalanced”;market-impliedprobabilityforanAugustratecutincreasesto62%(P:33%).•NorgesBankmaintainsratesandprovidesupwardrevisionstopolicyratepathforecasts,whichsupportNOK(EUR/NOK:–0.5%;USD/NOK:+0.1%),whereasSNBdeliversitssecond25bpcut,weakeningCHF(EUR/CHF:+0.4%;USD/CHF:+0.8%).•USD/IDR(+0.4%)reachesanewrecenthighof16,430asBIkeepsratesonhold;BIGovernorWarjiyosaystheUSD/IDR'sfundamentalval...