英国国家经济和社会研究所-季度定期保费跟踪-债券市场对夏季选举的反应（英）-2024.6-7页

“Inthesecondquarterof2024,the10-yearUKgovernmentbond(gilt)yieldhasfluctuatedaround4.2percent,risingfrom4.0percentinthefirstquarteroftheyear,drivenbyslightlyrisingbutvolatileshort-terminterestrateexpectationsandmorerecently,arisingtermpremium.BothdevelopmentsmayreflectincreaseduncertaintyinmarketsfollowingtheannouncementoftheUKgeneralelection.Further,upwards-trendingco-movementsintermpremiaestimatesinbothBritishandEuropeaneconomiesfollowingtheEuropeanParliamentelectionsaresuggestiveofspilloversofinternationalriskanduncertainty.”PaulaBejaranoCarboEconomist,NIESRNIESRQuarterlyTermPremiumTrackerBondMarketsReacttoSummerElectionsPaulaBejaranoCarbo,MonicaGeorgeMichailandHaileyLowJune2024NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchniesr.ac.ukTermPremiumTrackerJune24-2-Figure1–UK10-yeargovernmentbondyieldanddecompositionbyaveragecurrentandexpectedfutureshort-terminterestratesandriskpremium(percent)Source:Authors’calculationsbasedonBankofEnglanddataMainPoints:•The10-yearUKgovernmentbond(gilt)yieldwasrisingfromearly2022tomid-2023duetotheBankofEngland’smonetarytighteningcycle,buthassincebeenrelativelystable.Inthesecondquarterof2024,the10-yeargiltyieldhasaveraged4.2percent,risingfrom4.0percentinthefirstquarteroftheyear,drivenbyvolatileshort-terminterestrateexpectationsandmorerecently,arisingtermpremium.Bothdevelopme...