Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary June 18-108757016

MUpdateGlobalMacroCommentary|NorthAmericaJune18MorganStanley&Co.LLCAlexandraMaierStrategistAlexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com+1212761-0428ZoeKStraussStrategistZoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com+1212761-0407LenoyDujonUS/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+LorenzoTestaStrategistLorenzo.Testa@morganstanley.com+44207677-0337MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+HirokiYagiResearchAssociateHiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-5412MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GekTengKhooStrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303SoftMayUSretailsalesdatasendUSTyieldslower;strong20yUSTauctionacceleratesrally;AUDrisesafterRBA;Fedspeakreiteratesdatadependence;USD/JPYfallsasBoJ'sUedaleavespotentialforJulyhike;Korearatesrelativelyoutperform;DXYat105.27(-0.%);US10yat4.223%(-5.8bp).•Weaker-than-expectedMayUSretailsaleswithdownwardrevisionstothealreadysoftAprildatasuggestweakeningintheconsumerandapotentialslowdownofgrowth,whichsendUSTyieldslower.•USTrallyacceleratesafterastrong20yauctionthatstoppedout2.8bpthroughthewhen-issuedyield,withthelowestrecordedallotmenttoprimarydealers(5.8%)sincethetenorwasreintroduced.•AUD(+0.7%)risesandACGBsselloffaftertheRBAkeepsrateonhold,butthestatementismodestlymorehawkish,emphasizingthattheRBA“willdowhatisnecessary"togetinflationbacktotarget.•As...