Morgan Stanley Fixed-Asia Economics The Viewpoint How US elections could affect...-108986535

MIdeaAsiaEconomics|AsiaPacificTheViewpoint:HowUSelectionscouldaffectAsiaAftertheUSpresidentialdebate,investorsareaskingwhataTrumpwinand/orRepublicansweepwouldmeanforAsia.Weseethreechannelsoftransmission:(1)tariffs,(2)USandglobalgrowth,(3)financialconditions–USratesanddollar.Ourtopconcern:thegrowthdownsidefromhighertariffs.MorganStanleyAsiaLimitedChetanAhyaChiefAsiaEconomistChetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com+8522239-7812MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.DerrickYKamAsiaEconomistDerrick.Kam@morganstanley.com+656834-8272MorganStanleyAsiaLimitedJonathanCheungEconomistJonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com+8522848-5652Researchreportsrelatedtothistopic:USPublicPolicy:NavigatingaNoisyElection(14Jun2024)GlobalEconomicBriefing:TheWeeklyWorldview:What-ifsfortariffs(27May2024)GlobalMacroStrategist:TimetoEnterUSTSteepeners(29Jun2024)USEquityStrategy:WeeklyWarm-up:ElectionsHaveConsequences(1Jul2024)AsiaEconomics:TheViewpoint:Trade–Improvingfundamentals,risingtensions(22Apr2024)AsiaEconomics:TheViewpoint:TradeTensions,SupplyChainDiversification,andChina(19Mar2024)AsiaEconomics:TheViewpoint:TheRiskofTradeTensionsReturning(5Feb2024)AsiaEconomics:TheViewpoint:HowBigofaDeflationaryForceWillChinaBe?(29Jan2024)Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.KeyTakeawaysTariffrisksarerisinggivenrecentdevelopm...