MonetarypolicyinaneraoftransformationGiorgioPrimiceriThedriversofpost-pandemicinflationThedriversofpost-pandemicinflation1Thedriversofpost-pandemicinflationByDomenicoGiannone1andGiorgioE.Primiceri23AbstractPost-covidinflationwaspredominantlydrivenbyunexpectedlystrongdemandforces,notonlyintheUnitedStates,butalsointheEuroArea.Incomparison,theinflationaryimpactofadversesupplyshockswaslesspronounced,eventhoughtheseshockssignificantlyconstrainedeconomicactivity.Withoutputalreadyweakenedbytheseunfavourablesupplyconditions,anyattemptbytheEuropeanCentralBanktofurthermitigatethedemand-driveninflationarypressures—tomaintaininflationnearits2-percenttarget—wouldhaveseverelyhamperedanalreadyanaemicrecovery.1IntroductionTheevolutionofpost-pandemicinflationhasbeenremarkablysimilarintheUnitedStates(US)andtheEuroArea(EA).USinflationhasacceleratedinthefirsthalfof2021,ithasreacheditspeakinthesecondquarterof2022,andithasbeenfallingsince.InflationintheEAhasfollowedtheverysamepath,onlydelayedbyapproximatelysixmonths.Inthispaper,westudythecausesofthishighinflationepisode—thefirstofitskindsincetheGreatInflationofthe1970s—andthetrade-offsconfrontingtheFederalReserve(Fed)andtheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).SuchsimilarinflationexperiencesacrosstheAtlanticareunlikelytobemerecoincidences.Infact,wefindthatinflationhasbeenlargelydrivenbydem...
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