Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary June 12-108683090

MJune12,202410:54PMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryNorthAmericaMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-0428+44207425-9781June12AlexandraMaier+1212761-2779WeakUSCPIsupportsUSTrally;JuneSEPshowsonecutinStrategist+44207677-03372024;Powellemphasizessignificanceoffirstcut;BoTonhold;Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.comEuropeandurationralliesamidweakUSCPI;BoC'sMacklem+8136836-5412reiteratespolicynolongerneedstobeasrestrictive;DXYatMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++8522239-7983104.67(-0.5%);US10yat4.316%(-8.8bp).DominicJKrummenacher•Broad-baseddecelerationinMayUSCoreCPIat0.16%m/m(P:0.29%)withanotableslowdownincoreservicesexshelter,whichStrategistfell-0.04%m/m(P:0.42%),supportsadouble-digitrallyinUSTsDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comduringtheNYmorning.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•JuneFOMCSummaryofEconomicProjectionsshowsone25bpcutin2024asopposedtothreeintheMarchSEPduetoupwardLenoyDujonrevisionstocorePCEinflationforecasts;USTyieldsandDXYUSDIndex(-0.5%)partiallyretracetheirsizeablemoveslower.US/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•FedChairPowellemphasizesthesignificanceofthetimingofthefirstratecut,highlightingthatwhentheystarttoloosenpolicy,itwillMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+“showupinasignificantlooseninginfinancialmarketconditions.”LorenzoTesta•BoTmeetingmaintainspolicyrateat2.5%andprovidesanupbeateconomicforecast;THB...