BenjaminShatil(81-3)6736-1730TakuhoMorimoto(81-3)6736-6682JapanEconomicResearchJPMORGANbenjamin.shatil@jpmorgan.comtakuho.morimoto@jpmorgan.com21June2024JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.AyakoFujita(81-3)6736-1172ayako.fujita@jpmorgan.comJapanBetweennowandtheJulymeeting,theBoJ’s2QTankansur-vey,releasedJuly1,willbecloselywatched,aswillincom-•UedaleavesdooropenforJulyratehikeinginflationandconsumptiondata.Butwestillthinkit•Activityandinflationreportsmixedthrough2Q...wouldbeamistaketoputtoomuchweightonthehigh-fre-•…butincomingdataunlikelytomateriallyswayquencydataflowinjudgingtheBoJ’spolicypath.WeremainoftheviewthattheBoJisonsomethingofapre-determinedBoJ’simmediatepolicypathcoursethatwillnotbemateriallyswayedbytheeconomy’sshort-termcyclicalstance.ByfirstremovingYCCandnega-•Nextweek:Retailsalesup,IPreboundsinMaytiverates,theBoJhassetthestagefora“substantial”reduc-tioninbondpurchasesandUedahassignaledthathikesThepastweek’sdataflowwaspunctuatedbyUeda’sremarksabovethezeroboundarecoming.Ifwearecorrect,thentheonthepossibilityofaratehikeinJuly,largelyrepeatingcom-BoJ’sdraggingitsfeetinJunewaslessofareactiontomentshemadeatthepriorweek’smonetarypolicymeeting.incomingdataweakness,andmoreanattempttolaytheByagainstatingthatahikeispossible,wethinkUedaaimstogroundworkforthenextimportantshiftinpolicythatisnowleavea...
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