Barclays_Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Polling_Ahead

CrossAssetResearch16June2024GlobalPortfolioManager'sDigestFOCUSPollingAheadEquityProductManagementGroupTerenceMaloneWeprovidecontextandperspectiveonresearchacrossregions+12125267578andassetclasses,thisweekhighlighting:ourthoughtsontheterence.malone@barclays.comupcomingParliamentaryelectionsinFrance;acomprehensiveBCI,USuserguideforglobalinflation-linkedmarkets;andstresstestresultsfortheUSbanksandBaselIIIendgamerules.RobBate+44(0)2077733576•2024FranceParliamentaryElections:Initialpollsindicatenooutrightmajoritywillresultrob.bate@barclays.comBarclays,UKfromtheFrenchlegislativeelectionstobeheldon30Juneand7July,butastrongadvantageforLePen'spartymakes'cohabitation'orahungParliamentthemostlikelyoutcomes,bothFICCProductManagementGroupofwhichweviewasnegativevs.thestatusquo.Tothatend,webelievethatFrenchpoliticsBenMcLannahanintroducesariskpremiumintheEUR,tiltingtheriskprofilefurthertothedownsideand+44(0)2031349586beyondeconomicdivergencewiththeUS.ItalsoaddstopositiveUKpoliticalrisks,ben.mclannahan@barclays.comreinforcingourconstructiveviewonthepound,butimpedesfurtherweakeningintheSwissBarclays,UKfrancviathegenerationofsafehavenflows.WealsoseecurrenciessensitivetoRussiatensionsasnetlosers,viaanincreasedgeopoliticalriskpremiumanduncertaintyaroundEUJenniferCardillitransfers.CredithasstartedbehavingasaproxyhedgeforEuropean...