JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-109059334

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com05July2024JPMorganChaseBankNAAbielReinhart(1-212)2704058MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.commichael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comUnitedStatesanother0.2%increaseintheex-foodandenergycoreCPI.TwodayspriortothatreportChairPowellwillpresenthis•Junejobsupasolid206,000butunemploymentratesemiannualmonetarypolicytestimonybeforetheSenatebankingcommittee.ticksupto4.1%Joblessnessdriftshigher•MostMayspendingdatacameinalittlelight,suggest-The206,000increaseinnonfarmemploymentgainedsupportingmodest2QGDPgrowthfromthegovernmentsector,whereemploymentgrowthreboundedto70,000lastmonth,drivenbystateandlocal•Nextweek’sCPIreportcouldinfluencemessaginggovernments.Privateemploymentincreasedbyonly136,000inMay;healthcareandsocialassistanceaccountedforcomingoutofJulyFOMC82,000ofthosejobs(Figure1).Temphelpemploymentcon-tractedby49,000—historicallythiscategorywasseenasa•Butbeforethat,ChairPowellexpectedtotellCongressleadingindicator,thoughtemphelpjobshavebeendecliningsinceearly’22.Factoryjobsslippedby8,000.ThethirdprintnextweekthatFedcanbepatientofjobshasnowbeenrevisedlowerrelativetotheinitialprintinnineofthepast12monthsanditisverylikelythattheThelatestbatchofeconomicdatasupportthe...