MorganStanleyResearchGlobalJune17,202411:10AMGMTMorganStanleyGlobalMacroForumNavigatingaNoisyElectionJune17,2024MichaelZezas–GlobalHeadofFixedIncomeResearchStrategistArunimaSinha–GlobalEconomicsTeamGlobalEconomistToddCastagno–HeadofGlobalValuation,Accounting&Tax(GVAT)GVATStrategistMatthewHornbach–GlobalHeadofMacroStrategyStrategistKristineLiwag–SeniorAerospace&DefenseEquityAnalystEquityAnalystMORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MichaelZezasGlobalHeadofFixedIncomeResearchIt’saCloseRacePredictionmarketsimplyatightracebetweenPresidentBidenandformerPresidentTrump.Source:Bloomberg,Predictit.org,MorganStanleyResearchExecutivePolicyChoicesImmigrationandtariffsaretopicareaswithkeypolicydifferencesbetweenPresidentBidenandformerPresidentTrump.Source:MorganStanleyResearchDeficitScenariosThelargerdifferencebetweenthetwosweepscenariosisevidentoverthelongertermthantheshorterterm.Source:MorganStanleyResearchArunimaSinhaGlobalEconomicsT...
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