Barclays_Global_Macro_Thoughts_Not_a_time_to_get_complacent

GlobalMacroThoughtsFOCUSNotatimetogetcomplacentFICCResearchGlobalMacro24June2024AjayRajadhyaksha+12124127669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI,USMaxKitson+44(0)2035552386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays,UKKaanhariSingh+85229032651kaanhari.singh@barclays.comBarclaysBank,HongKongWherenotedinthesourcenotes,theviewsexpressedwithinthisreportaretakenfrompreviouslypublishedresearch.Forfurtherdetail,includingimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications,pleasefollowthelinksoneachpageandonpage8.ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.Pleaseseeanalystcertificationsandimportantdisclosuresbeginningonpage9.Completed:24-Jun-24,10:56GMTReleased:24-Jun-24,11:00GMTRestricted-ExternalRestricted-ExternalTheworldataglance•EvenwithUSbondyieldslow,USDJPYapproaches160•TheCBOcomesupwithnewborrowingestimates,andbondsdon’tcare•TheOAT-Bundspreadkeepsgappingout,tothewidestlevelsinadecade•Makingsenseofitall224June2024Restricted-ExternalFXmarketsgetexciting,andUSborrowingneedskeeprising•USDJPYendedlastweekat159....