JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-108709429

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com14June2024JPMorganChaseBankNAMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comUnitedStatesorthelabormarketshowsunexpectedweakness,it’sconceiv-abletheycouldeasebytheSeptembermeeting.•CoreCPIroseonly0.16%inMay,thesoftestmonthlyInflationtakesaturnforthebettergainsinceAugust2021IntheCPIreport,energypricesdeclined2.0%,whichwasa•Initialjoblessclaimsclimbedto242,000,thehighestlittlemorethanweexpected.Gasolinepricesweredown3.6%,buttherewerealsomodestdeclinesinhouseholdener-levelsincelastsummergyprices.Foodpricesincreasedamodest0.1%lastmonth,andtheyear-agoincreaseinfoodpricesmoderatedto2.1%.•TheFOMCdialedbackexpectationsforratecutsthisWithinthecore,theflatreadingincoregoodspricesandtheyearbutlefteasinginplacefor’25and’260.4%riseinbothrentalmeasureswerelittlechangedfromrecentmonths.Thereallynotabledevelopmentwasaflat•Nextweek’sMayretailsalesreportexpectedtobounce(-0.04%)supercoremeasure—coreservicesex-rent—lastmonth,thesoftestreadingsinceSeptember2021(Figure1).backafterAprilstumbleFigure1:CoreservicesCPIex.tenants'rentandOERThereweretwomajordevelopmentsthisweek:theMayCPI%m/m,sareportandtheFOMCmeeting.Ofthetwo,thelargersurprise1.5cameintheinflationnews.Theheadli...