JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Data Watch Lets take a step back-108807359

JPMORGANGlobalEconomicResearch21June2024GlobalDataWatch•Afterastrong1H24,softerdataisstillconsistentwith2H24moderationEconomicandPolicyResearch•FiscaldragstotemperEMUrecovery,smoothingwaytoECBcuts•Chinadatamixedbutonnetsoft,trackingweak3.5%ar2QgrowthBruceKasman•Upnext:USrealPCE(0.4%),CorePCE(0.14%);Riksbankhold(1-212)834-5515Let’stakeastepbackbruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAAkeycallinourglobaloutlookforthisyearhasbeenthattheexpansionwouldgraduallyslowunderthepressureofstickyinflationthatkeptfinancialconditionsJosephLuptontight.Intheevent,inflationhasprovenevenstickierthanwehadexpected,leadingtoasignificantdelayintheanticipatedeasingcyclesofcentralbanks(Figure1).Broader(1-212)834-5735financialconditionshavetakenthisrepricinginstrideandnotoverreacted,buttheyjoseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comalsoremainadampingforceonactivity.Despitethis,globalGDPisstillontracktoJPMorganChaseBankNAadvance2.7%arin1H24,nearlyhalfapercentagepointstrongerthanpotentialandevenstrongerthanour2.1%arforecastatthestartoftheyear.ItisagainstthisbackdropNoraSzentivanyiofongoingresilienceintheexpansion(andcontinuedexpectationsforamoderation)thatthelatestsoft-patchinthedataneedstobeviewedagainst.Onbalance,weseethe(44-20)7134-7544dataasconsistentwithouroutlookforglobalGDPtodecelerateinthecomingquarternora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.combut...