JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Data Watch Goldilocks and the three bears-109059576

JPMORGANGlobalEconomicResearch05July2024GlobalDataWatch•Therearesoft-landingsignalsinJunePMIandUSemploymentreport...EconomicandPolicyResearch•…butrecentslidesinmomentumandbusinesssentimentraiseconcern•Politicalchangenotsettogeneratenear-termpolicyshiftinEuropeBruceKasman•Nextweek:USbenigncoreCPI(0.19%);Powelltestifies;Franceround2(1-212)834-5515Goldilocksandthethreebearsbruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAWereceivedthefirstimportantJuneactivityreleasesthisweek—theglobalall-industryPMIandUSemploymentreport—andoverall,theysendaconstructiveJosephLuptonsignalbolsteringsoft-landinghope.TheJunePMIunwoundmuchofitsMaybouncebutmaintainsthisyear’supwardtrajectorythatpointstoabroadening(1-212)834-5735regionalandsectoralbaseofglobalgrowth(Figure1).At52.9,theJ.P.Morganjoseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comall-industryoutputindexalignswithstrong3.1%argrowthinglobalGDP,roughlyJPMorganChaseBankNA1%-ptaboveour2H24forecast.USemploymentgainscooledtoastillsolidpaceatmidyear,withbroad-basedgainsacrossthegoodsandservicessector.NoraSzentivanyiImportantly,thereportsuggestslaborincomeincreasedatafasterthan5%arlastquarter(Figure2).TheinflationsignalfromthePMIoutputpriceswasmore(44-20)7134-7544mixed:manufacturingfirmedandservicesmoderated,leavingtheoverallindexatnora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comastillelevatedlevel.Moreimportantonth...