JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Data Watch Fearful asymmetry-108709472

JPMORGANGlobalEconomicResearch14June2024GlobalDataWatch•InflationdroptrumpsFedcautioninmarketpricingofFedEconomicandPolicyResearch•Francesnapelectionandexcessivedeficitprocedureisnotagoodmix•SouthAfricaGNUpointstocentristrule;MexicoreformsaconcernBruceKasman•Nextweek:SolidRSandIPgainsinUSandChina;BoEonhold(1-212)834-5515Ontheheelsoflastweek’sECBandBankofCanadaratecuts,amorecautioustackbruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comwastakenbytheFedandBoJ.FedguidancepushedbackthelikelystartofitsJPMorganChaseBankNAeasingcycleasthemedianFOMCmemberreducedtheir2024projectedcutsto25bp.TheBoJannouncedashifttobalancesheetreduction(QT)butpostponedaJosephLuptondecisiononthisprocessuntilitsnextmeeting.AlthoughGovernorUedadidn’truleoutaJulyratehikenextmonth,hishesitancetotightenacrossmultiplefrontsraises(1-212)834-5735theriskthatthenextratehikewillbedelayeduntilSeptember.joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAMacroeconomicdisappointmentsunderliethesecentralbanks’caution(Figure1).IntheU.S.ChairPowelllinkedthechangeinthisyear’sdotplottoalackofNoraSzentivanyiprogressonloweringinflationthisyear.Indeed,bothcoreCPIandPCEhaveincreasedatclosetoa4%aryeartodate.FortheBoJ,persistentgrowthweakness(44-20)7134-7544istheconcernasconsumersdonotshowsignsofliftingintomidyearfollowingnora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comfourconsecutivequarterlyspending...