Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Strategist The Debates Rage On

MJune22,202412:07AMGMTGlobalIdeaGlobalMacroStrategistMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-1837+1212761-1445TheDebatesRageOnMatthewHornbach+1212761-5287+1212761-6076Toease,ornottoease,thatisthequestion.WhileseveralStrategist+1212761-1009centralbankshaveansweredthequestionalready,eventhoseMatthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com+1212761-0407thathaveanswered"yes"struggletoanswerthefollowups:howmuchtoeaseandhowquickly?ThedebateswillnotconcludeGuneetDhingra,CFA+44207677-3254nextweek,butthefirstUSpresidentialdebatewill.+44207425-3518Strategist+44207425-1945GlobalMacroStrategyGuneet.Dhingra@morganstanley.com+44207425-6841Wediscussthecircularitybetweencentralbankandgovernmentpolicies,+44207677-0337economicactivity,andmarkets.WeshowhowsmallbusinessesmayplayanAndrewMWatrous+44207425-1869interestingroleinthecurrentcycle.Wealsodiscussoneaspectofourmid-+44207425-9781yearoutlook:ourforecastforarisingUSDandlowerUSTyields.StrategistAndrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com+8136836-8428InterestRateStrategy+8136836-8431IntheUS,westayneutralonduration,andmaintainreceiveJulyFOMCOISMartinWTobias,CFAswap.Intheeuroarea,wemaintainourstructuralreceiveEUR1y1y,andmaintainourlongERZ497.125call.Incash,wemaintainour2s10sBTPsStrategiststeepenersvs.Bunds.IntheUK,weclosedourSFIU4/U5flatteners,andweMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.comenterintoa10s30sgiltflattener,whilew...