Barclays_Global_Outlook_Calm_on_the_surface

FICCResearchGlobalMacro20June2024GlobalOutlookSIGNATURECalmonthesurfaceAjayRajadhyaksha+12124127669Wepreferglobalequitiestofixedincomeoncemore,givenaajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.combackdropofsolidglobalgrowthandagradualeasingcycle.ButBCI,USinvestorsshouldkeepawaryeyeontailscenarios,especiallyinlightofpoliticalrisks.ForewordCalmonthesurface...............................................3MacroOutlookEnjoythequiet(whileitlasts)......................................5Ourbaselineisforsteadyglobalgrowth,unevenbutcontinuedprogressoninflation,andasloweasingcycle,despiterisingpoliticalrisks.DisappointingChinadatashouldbeoffsetbyresilientgrowthintheUSandIndia,aswellasacyclicalpickupinEurope.InvestmentOutlookReluctantlongs.................................................13Weareoverweightglobalequitiesoverfixedincomeforthethirdstraightquarter.Whilestilllongriskyassets,wearemorecautiousnow,givenelevatedvaluationsandrisingpoliticalandtraderisks.Buyingprotectionagainstmanykeytailrisksischeap;weoutlineafewkeythemes.SummaryofAssetAllocationThemes................................................17ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforits...