Macquarie Research-Commodities Comment-108648833

DeskStrategy-Metals&Bulks10June2024ThiscommunicationhasbeenpreparedbySalesandTradingPersonnelatStrategistsMacquarieandisnotaproductoftheMacquarieResearchDepartment.GlobalForimportantdisclosuresrelatingtothiscommunication,pleasesee:www.macquarie.com/salesandtradingdisclaimer.AliceJoyceFoxLiCommoditiesCommentMarcusSukritiLithium:buildinginventoriesweighontheGarveyKalramarketJimSerafino•TheanticipatedrecoveryinlithiumpricesthisyearhaslostmomentumLennonCapoferrisoonerthanexpected,withinsufficientsupplyhavingexitedatlowerXinyipricesandbuildingrawmaterialinventoriesweighingonthemarket.Ye•TherewasastrongseasonalrecoveryinChineseproductionofInventorieshavebuiltsincetheendoflastyearcarbonateandhydroxideinMarchandAprilalthoughthisisexpectedtohavemoderatedinMay.MidstreamproductionrapidlygrewinQ1butSource:SMM,MacquarieStrategy,June'24registeredslowergrowthinApril,withproductionofternarycathodematerialsforecasttofallby13%MoMinMay.ThishasresultedinabuildWiththepaceofgrowthinEVsalesinLi2CO3inventories,withtotalinventoriesnowat92kt,theirhighestslowinglevelsincethedataseriesbegan.Source:RhoMotion,MacquarieStrategy,June'24•BatteryinventoriesinChinaonlymildlyincreasedinMarchdespiteOEMsinChinahavingseasonallyincreasedEVsalessinceCNY.GlobalBEVsaleswereup10.6%Jan-Apr,asizeableincreasey/ybutamarkedslowdowncomparedtothe26.9%growt...