世界大型企业联合会-建筑压力：美国银行正准备进行商业房地产清算吗？（英）-2024-16页

Economy,Strategy&FinanceCenterBuildingStress:AreUSBanksHeadedforaCommercialRealEstateReckoning?Banksarethelargestlenderstocommercialrealestate(CRE)andhavegrownthebusinessinthepastdecade.Theseloansarecomingdueamiddecade-highinterestratesandadropindemandforofficespacestemmingfromhybridwork—upendingatraditionallylower-riskbusinessforbanks.Financialinstitutionshaveyettofullycometotermswiththeirlosses;thereckoningiscoming.TrustedInsightsforWhat’sAhead™•Thelargestbanks,withover$250billioninassets,arelessatriskastheyrecognizedproblematicCREloans,liftedloanlossallowances,possessanamplecapitalcushion,anddonotexhibitconcentratedCREexposure.•However,small,midsize,andlargebanksarevulnerablebecausetheyhaveconcentratedexposure,fewerallowances,andlesscapitaltoabsorbCREloanlosses.Thesebanks,withassetsrangingfrom$100millionto$250billion,willlikelyliftCREcharge-offsthroughout2024.•Banks,especiallythosewithlessthan$100billioninassets,arerestrictinglendingtoCRE.WhilethisisreducingtheissuanceofnewCREloans,tighterlendingstandardscannotalleviateexistingconcentrationsonbankbalancesheets.•Companieswillexperiencemorerestrictivefinancingconditionsasthereckoningunfolds,onethatwillbeworseinsomeareasofthecountrythanothers.Toremainnimbleandprudent,executivesshouldreviewdepositinsurancethresholdsandensureadequateworkingcapitalbefore,...